Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.015820 0.017908 0.020185 0.022856 0.025908 0.029290 0.033327
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.012750 0.015638 0.019068 0.023452 0.028928 0.035565 0.044258
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011096 0.014355 0.018448 0.023993 0.031351 0.040836 0.054081
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009615 0.012982 0.017408 0.023692 0.032452 0.044330 0.061820
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008512 0.011921 0.016580 0.023470 0.033496 0.047703 0.069622
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007639 0.011051 0.015879 0.023280 0.034473 0.050976 0.077537
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007132 0.010632 0.015746 0.023857 0.036574 0.056039 0.088649
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006496 0.009947 0.015137 0.023622 0.037364 0.059125 0.096935
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006184 0.009720 0.015187 0.024394 0.039789 0.064991 0.110389
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005575 0.008962 0.014328 0.023601 0.039546 0.066425 0.116407
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005125 0.008419 0.013761 0.023225 0.039942 0.068933 0.124536
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004640 0.007774 0.012966 0.022376 0.039414 0.069748 0.129619
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004487 0.007685 0.013112 0.023204 0.041996 0.076458 0.146732
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004307 0.007535 0.013140 0.023824 0.044263 0.082842 0.164048
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004132 0.007376 0.013134 0.024373 0.046439 0.089260 0.182206
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003850 0.006999 0.012700 0.024067 0.046915 0.092385 0.193887
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003606 0.006672 0.012327 0.023841 0.047521 0.095814 0.206615
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003388 0.006376 0.011989 0.023648 0.048164 0.099372 0.220046
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003282 0.006285 0.012036 0.024235 0.050486 0.106706 0.242973
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003090 0.006010 0.011700 0.023995 0.051012 0.110194 0.257339
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003022 0.005978 0.011844 0.024781 0.053854 0.119117 0.285941
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002797 0.005609 0.011273 0.023975 0.053051 0.119648 0.293819
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002631 0.005350 0.010911 0.023592 0.053175 0.122338 0.307511